You own the map.
Now own the answer.

1. Executive summary

• You already own the map, and that is the expensive part done. For "heat pump servicing" you went from ranking top three across 8% of the Christchurch area to 29%, and for "home ventilation system" from under 2% to 27%. Across all ten tracked services your share of the map went from 19% to 28%, having eased from 33% on the 1 September scan. The reviews, the reputation and the local signals are built. Your GBP
• You appear everywhere in search and win almost nowhere. 242,309 non-branded impressions last year turned into 442 clicks, a 0.18% click-through, because your average Search Console position across the category is 23. That 23 is a blended average across every search your site appears for, which makes it the right input for sizing the opportunity and the wrong tool for checking where you sit on any single term. Your own name earns 58% of your clicks off 1.7% of your impressions. Only the non-branded 442 is what a search strategy can grow. GSC
• The category converts, which is what makes this worth doing. When people do land on you from search, 5.5% of them submit an enquiry, measured across a full year in your analytics and confirmed independently by two years of our own reporting. What holds you back is visibility: people buy once they find you. GA4

So the whole opportunity is one sentence: you hold 2.0% of the non-branded organic clicks in your category, and every extra 1% is worth about $13,800 a year. Your branded traffic and your Maps enquiries are not part of this and do not change.

Built on your own numbers, all of them now confirmed: an organic enquiry rate of 5% measured in your analytics, an average install job of $3,200 from your published pricing, which you have confirmed is close to your real average, and your own close rate of 40 to 50%, modelled at the conservative end. Section 5 shows the chain in full. Every column is non-branded, and your Maps enquiries sit on top of all of it, unchanged. Your figures Modelled

The mid case is a 12% share of the winnable pool, roughly one click in eight. Every rival in Appendix C already ranks for more category keywords than you do, 42 to 140 against your 13. Ahrefs

Search volumes from Ahrefs, New Zealand, July 2026, across a deduped set of 75 real Canterbury terms. Ahrefs

2. What we have already driven for you

Before the opportunity, the proof. When someone in Canterbury pulls out their phone and searches for a heat pump service, you now show up in the top three across a large share of the region. That is the Maps work compounding, and the last two scans have eased off the peak, which we are watching rather than reacting to.

Coverage measured across a fixed 169-point grid of your Canterbury service area, from each term's tracked baseline to the latest scan (1 October 2026). Every one of the ten came back flat or lower than it was on 1 September. Five of the ten are still well clear of where they started. Two are the exceptions: heat pump installation is 2.4 points ahead of its baseline, 44.4% against 42.0%, and air conditioner installation sits just below its own, 58.0% against 59.2%. The three Christchurch-qualified terms have not moved. Google Business Profile under-counts real calls, so these are the floor. Your GBP

3. How AI-ready you are today: the AEO scorecard

We score every brand out of 100 against our AEO Maturity Model: four pillars (Technical, Content, Authority, Measurement), each out of 25. Certified is 80 out of 100, Professional on all four, the standard we build clients to. You are at 45 today, carried by a genuine local reputation and held back by content an AI cannot read.

The detailed findings and how the scoring works are in the appendix.

4. The market you are missing: search and AI

A heat pump is a considered, quoted purchase in the low thousands. People research it, compare brands, ask what size they need and what it costs to run, then pick two or three installers to quote. They now ask those questions in two places, a search box and an AI chat, and you are absent from both.

Search volume from Ahrefs (NZ). The last column is your 12-month Google average position for that term in Search Console, blended across every impression it earned, so it sizes the opportunity and is the wrong tool for checking where you sit on any single search. The pattern is consistent: where we have built you a page and local signals, the blend lands at 1 or close to it (Rolleston service, national ventilation). Where we have not, the blend sits at page two or lower, or the term earns no impressions at all, and that is the whole Christchurch commercial category. Difficulty across these ten runs 2 to 19, and 2 to 31 across the full 75-term set, low on either reading. These are unclaimed positions, not hard ones. Ahrefs GSC

Prompt demand is anchored to the keyword volumes with a conservative fan-out uplift, so treat it as a floor. Directional, plus or minus 50%. AI-sourced enquiries are deliberately not counted in the dollar model in section 5, so nothing is double-counted and the numbers there stay conservative. Modelled from Ahrefs anchors

5. The opportunity, in dollars

The table in the executive summary is built from four numbers. Here is the chain in full, and exactly how solid each link is.

Roughly one search in five survives ads, the Maps pack and AI answers as a winnable organic click. You currently take one in fifty of those. Modelled

Four inputs. Two are measured from your own data, one comes from your published pricing, and one you have confirmed yourselves. Nothing here is our guess.

That is the whole model: win more of the 21,600 clicks. Nothing here counts your Maps enquiries, your branded traffic, the roughly 18 calls a month that come straight off your Google profile, or anything AI sends you. All of that sits on top.

New install work per year from non-branded organic search, the mid case, phasing in as the engine relights: roughly 10% live by month 3, 35% by month 6, 70% by month 9, all of it by month 12. Hover any point for the maths. Modelled, directional

Two levers, both measurable. Click-through on the impressions you already earn, as you move from an average position of 23 into the top three: 242,000 non-branded impressions converting at even 1% instead of today's 0.18% is 2,400 clicks a year on visibility you already have. And more impressions, as the Christchurch commercial pages you do not yet have start to rank. The conservative case assumes only the first lever lands. The high case assumes both do.

6. Where this goes next

Three things sit in front of us as at October 2026. Hold the map. Coverage eased on the last two scans, so the next scan gets held against this one before anything changes on the profile, rather than reacting to a single reading. Claim the three Christchurch-qualified searches. Fifteen months of scanning and no movement on "heat pumps christchurch", "heat pump service christchurch" and "heat pump repair christchurch", which is the honest gap and the biggest commercial demand in your market. That is a pages-and-answers job rather than a Maps one. And start on AI. The 1 October scan checked ChatGPT, Gemini and Meta AI across the same ten searches and found you on one of them, ChatGPT at position 8 and Meta AI at 19 for "heat pump service christchurch". That is one reading at one point in time, so treat it as a first marker, and it is the thing worth building on while the category is still open.

Ben is back from leave and will be in touch this month to walk through that AI picture and to answer the questions you raised about Notable.

Appendix A: your position today

Over the last 12 months your site earned 1,059 organic clicks from 246,437 impressions. Non-branded category search accounts for 98.3% of those impressions but only 41.7% of the clicks, across 5,925 different queries. Your own name earns 58.3% of your clicks off 1.7% of your impressions. You are being shown to the market constantly and almost never chosen, because your average position across those queries is 23. GSC

Google Analytics, last 12 months. Enquiry rate is the share of sessions submitting your enquiry form. Organic converts better than everything you pay for, which is the case for feeding it. GA4

Appendix B: the scorecard in detail

Here is what sits behind the 45, and what each piece takes to fix. It is content, structure and measurement, not a rebuild.

Appendix C: who you are up against

Your three strongest organic competitors in Christchurch, measured the same way on the same tool.

Ahrefs Site Explorer, New Zealand, subdomains mode, July 2026. Ahrefs estimates traffic from ranking positions, so all four are measured consistently and your real click count from Search Console is higher, about 88 a month against the 32 Ahrefs gives you. That is why section 4 states the traffic gap both ways, roughly 6 times on your Search Console clicks and 15 to 18 times when both sides are read off Ahrefs. Heat Force sits at a lower domain authority than you might expect, which is the encouraging part: they are winning on pages and answers, not on some insurmountable authority lead. That is buildable. Ahrefs

Appendix D: where the numbers come from

Map-pack coverage, calls, direction requests and reviews are from your Google Business Profile, measured across a fixed 169-point grid of your Canterbury service area, from each term's tracked baseline to the latest scan (1 October 2026). Impressions, clicks, average position and the branded versus non-branded split are from your Google Search Console, last 12 months, on the sc-domain property. Sessions, channels and enquiry rates are from your Google Analytics 4, last 12 months, using the completed-form event rather than the property's own key-event total, which over-counts by roughly three times. Search volumes and competitor footprints are from Ahrefs, New Zealand, July 2026, across a deduped set of 75 real Canterbury heat pump, ventilation and air-conditioning terms; the full category figure applies a conservative long-tail multiple to that validated core. The winnable click pool assumes roughly one search in five survives ads, the Maps pack and AI answers as an organic click. AI prompt volumes are modelled from the keyword anchors with a conservative fan-out uplift and are directional, plus or minus 50%; AI-sourced enquiries are excluded from the dollar model so nothing is double-counted. The AI assistant positions come from the AI rank check our Maps platform runs alongside the grid scan, on 1 October 2026, across ChatGPT, Gemini and Meta AI on the same ten searches; it records whether DCIS appears and at what position, and records nothing about who else an answer names, so no claim here rests on what an AI answer said about another installer. The AEO score is from our AEO Maturity Model against a live crawl of dcis.co.nz. Job values are your own published installed prices, confirmed by you as close to your real average; the close rate is your own figure of 40 to 50%, modelled at the conservative end. Revenue figures are directional, modelled from your own conversion rate, pricing and close rate, and are not a guarantee of results.